How will I know when it’s a good time to buy a house?

As far as I can trek if you want a house around a HCOL area you’re gonna be paying at least 20% over asking. At least that’s based on the few people I know who have bought houses over the last 2 years.

I almost have my down payment ready by in being told buying a house right now is a bad idea if I wanted a reasonable return in the future. What signs do I look for to see if it’s a good time to purchase?